Many avid DXers will know that propagation conditions have been rather good of late now that we are fully into Solar Cycle 25. The increased solar flux is doing its expected work of intensifying the ionosphere, providing the refracting layers that return skyward HF signals back to earth and give us the openings for all kinds of DX at 14 MHz. and higher. However, all good things must come to an end.
A recent publication by the Indian Center of Excellence in Space Sciences has announced a newly discovered correlation between the Sun's magnetic field variation and sunspot cycle. Using this new model, which complements the Waldmeier solar max prediction method, the current estimate of Solar Cycle 25 peaking is early 2024, possibly stretching out to third quarter 2024. These two predictive models are now telling us that the days of easy DX with QRP equipment are culminating and will be back on the way down by the end of 2024. Bad news for the easy DX on 17 to 10 metres, but good news for propagation on 160 to 40 metres.
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While the peak of Cycle 25 will be better than that of Cycle 24, it appears by not so much despite the promise of peak SFIs well into the 200s given the very steep rise when Cycle 25 took off. Still, there is hope that the solar flux will remain high for the next 18 months or so which ought to give those chasing various awards and certificates a chance before things go quiet again.
Good luck to all and 73,
Hugo, VE3KTN.